Restrictive state firearm policies cut firearm mortality

State-level restrictive firearm policies are associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality, according to a study published online July 31 in JAMA Network Open.

Terry L. Schell, Ph.D., from the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California, and colleagues examined how firearm mortality changed following the implementation of several common state policies that regulate firearms. The analysis included data from the National Vital Statistics System for all U.S. states from 1979 to 2019.

The researchers found that the estimated effect sizes of individual policies five or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was seen for child-access prevention laws, which reduced overall firearm mortality by an estimated 6%. The highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was seen for stand-your-ground laws, which increased firearm homicides by an estimated 6%.

Larger effect sizes for firearm mortality were seen for estimates based on implementing multiple firearm restrictions. An estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths was associated with moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies.

“Although there was considerable uncertainty around which specific policies were driving that large effect size, this finding provides evidence that this combination of firearm restrictions was associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality in the five years after implementation,” the authors write.

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